It's no news that there is a global shortage of chips.  Experts expect the chip shortage to end by the end of this year at the earliest and early next year at the latest.  

 For this shortage of chips, many people believe that it is caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. After all, the global industry was almost suspended for one season at the beginning of 2020, and the production recovery speed did not keep up with the market recovery speed, so the shortage of chips.  

But is that really the reason?  In my opinion, it is not, and it can even be said that it was "fake out of stock" at the beginning, but then slowly evolved into a real out of stock.  

Why say "false out of stock"?  The reason is that in the beginning, chipmakers were able to keep up with real demand, and there were theoretically no shortages.  

After all, the pandemic has affected production capacity, but it has also affected demand, and manufacturers have inventories, so a quarter of capacity suspension is not a problem.  

But what went wrong?  As early as January 2020, there were media reports that In response to the possible tightening of the US ban, Huawei has begun to actively stock up, at least one year's supply.  

However, in May, the ban officially came. Huawei placed additional orders to TSMC, mainly for 5nm and 7nm products, which made TSMC's capacity full and even occupied the capacity of other manufacturers.  

 After Huawei, manufacturers such as Xiaomi and OV also began to stockpile goods. After all, no one can predict whether they will be stuck like Huawei chips?  

So that formed the "domino effect", the downstream application enterprise large-scale stock up upward transmission, drive the whole industry chain to strengthen inventory, they began to stock up, before you stock up for 3 months is normal, are now heading for half a year or even one year needs to stock up, so the market demand was magnified.  

And capacity can not meet such a large demand for stockpiling, so finally slowly developed into a real shortage, capacity really can not keep up, so the whole industry chain began to price, the whole market began to "jitters".